Consider a human collective whose members issue opinions about an event that can only be true of false. Individual reliability is p, ranging between zero and one. It is higher than 0.5 when the individual is right more often than wrong; equals 1 when they
Scientific research is validated by reproduction of the results, but efforts to reproduce spurious claims drain resources. We focus on one cause of such failure: false positive statistical test results caused by random variability.
Do you want to take a bet? Let's leave it on an invitation to read your usual newspaper. We are sure you will find graphs, tables, percentages, some histogram and perhaps allusions to means, modal values, medians or percentiles. It does not seem fair to bet on
In 2012, the Royal Statistical Society issued the following question to the members of the British Parliament, probably regarding the International Year of Statistics (2013): «If you toss a coin twice, what is the probability of getting heads twice? ». The correct answer is «a probability of